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Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since 2022

A key Bitcoin supply indicator has printed its first buy signal since November 2022, though analysts warn BTC price could still fall further.

A closely watched Bitcoin supply metric has flashed its first buy signal since November 2022, raising cautious optimism that the current bear market may be approaching its end, according to analysis published by Cointelegraph. The development marks a potentially significant inflection point for long-term Bitcoin investors monitoring on-chain data for early reversal signals.

The supply dynamics indicator last triggered a comparable reading during the depths of the 2022 crypto winter, a period that ultimately preceded a substantial Bitcoin recovery. Analysts tracking the metric suggest the current signal could similarly indicate that selling pressure is exhausting itself, historically a precursor to trend reversals in BTC markets.

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Despite the bullish implication of the supply reading, analysts cautioned that the signal alone does not guarantee an immediate price floor. Bitcoin could still move lower before any sustained recovery takes hold, meaning the buy signal functions more as a medium-term directional indicator than a precise market-timing tool. Investors were advised to weigh the data point within a broader analytical framework rather than acting on it in isolation.

The emergence of this supply signal comes as Bitcoin continues to navigate a prolonged bearish phase in 2026, with market participants searching for on-chain evidence that accumulation is outpacing distribution among long-term holders. Supply-based metrics have historically provided earlier confirmation of trend shifts than price action alone, making this reading particularly noteworthy for analysts who prioritize fundamental blockchain data over short-term trading signals.

Continue reading at Cointelegraph.

Continue reading at Cointelegraph →

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.When did Bitcoin's supply metric last flash a buy signal before 2026?

The supply metric last printed a buy signal in November 2022, during the depths of the previous crypto bear market.

Q.Does the Bitcoin supply buy signal mean prices will rise immediately?

Not necessarily. Analysts warned that Bitcoin's price could still go lower even after the buy signal, making it a medium-term indicator rather than a precise market-timing tool.

Q.What does a Bitcoin supply buy signal indicate?

A supply-based buy signal generally suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting itself and that supply dynamics are shifting in a way historically associated with market recoveries.

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