NY Fed Manufacturing Index Surges to 15.6 in July, Topping Forecasts
New York factory activity beat estimates by a wide margin in July, with new orders and shipments posting sharp gains.
New York's manufacturing sector delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound in July, with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index climbing to 15.6 — nearly double the consensus estimate of 8.80 and well above June's reading of 5.7. The report, released Monday, signals that factory conditions in the region are firming after months of choppy readings.
New orders led the advance, surging to 22.2 from just 3.5 in June, while shipments jumped to 24.4 from 8.6 — both posting their strongest readings in several months. Employment also edged higher to 11.4 versus 9.6 previously, suggesting manufacturers are adding workers as demand picks up. Delivery times lengthened modestly to 13.0 from 11.9, and inventories moved into positive territory at 4.0 after sitting flat the prior month.
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On the inflation front, price pressures showed some relief. The prices-paid index eased to 52.3 from 61.0 in June, and prices received fell to 27.6 from 31.4, hinting that input cost inflation may be moderating — a development that could inform Federal Reserve policymakers as they assess the pace of future rate decisions.
Looking ahead, the six-month business outlook index dipped slightly to 27.9 from 30.1, but forward-looking new orders rose to 33.2 from 32.4, indicating that manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic about near-term demand. Forward expectations for both prices paid and prices received also declined, reinforcing the narrative of easing cost pressures over the coming months. However, forward-looking delivery time and unfilled orders components turned negative, suggesting some caution around supply chain dynamics.
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